Despite all of the PM's many strengths, it is increasingly clear that he does not necessarily have a coherent and clear worldview on matters of macro policy.
We will find it difficult to exceed an average of 5 per cent growth in the medium term, warns Shankar Acharya, the former chief economic adviser.
India's economic growth is likely to reach pre-COVID-19 levels by the end of the 2021-22 fiscal as the GDP contraction in this financial year is expected to be less than 8 per cent, Niti Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Kumar said on Sunday. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also revised its forecast of economic growth for the current fiscal year (2020-21) to (-)7.5 per cent as against its earlier forecast of (-)9.5 per cent.
Growth in the east Asia region would be dragged down by the poor performance of countries like Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia.
Independence Day was celebrated across states and Union territories on Thursday, as several chief ministers announced job schemes while some others vowed their support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's vision of a Viksit Bharat by 2047.
If we persist in talk and little action, I think we will slip. I fear the consequences of sustained slow growth. We need strong, sustained, clever action today, Rajan said.
The Indian economy requires a Rs 3 lakh crore fiscal stimulus, including cash transfer to households through Jan Dhan accounts to spur economic growth amid the pandemic, industry chamber CII said on Thursday and pitched for appointment of a 'Vaccine Czar' for speedy vaccination coverage. CII president T V Narendran also said the chamber expects GDP to grow at 9.5 per cent in 2021-22 as the strong growth in the second half of the fiscal year will be supported by robust external demand and large-scale coverage of vaccination, allowing resumption of economic activity. He also advocated for appointment of a "Vaccine Czar" for speedy vaccination coverage.
'This year overall hiring has seen a slight improvement as compared to the dip seen during the last financial year.'
'Election funding needs a little more transparency.'
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday announced income tax relief for the middle class, a Rs 2 lakh crore outlay for job creation schemes over the next five years and a spending splurge for states run by her party's new coalition partners as she unveiled the Modi 3.0 government's first budget after the general elections.
'While most companies were bullish before the second wave of double-digit sales growth in FY22, that may not be the case now.'
There hasn't been any dramatic moment in the first act (the Budget) but nobody would complain. It's par for the course as long as the figures don't change in the main Budget, which will be presented after general elections.
Now that the economy is growing at a higher-than-expected rate, it is time to accelerate the pace of fiscal consolidation, and the Budget could be a good starting point, argues Rajesh Kumar.
Indian policymakers are almost alone, alongside the United States, in seeking a hard and multi-sectoral global decoupling from China in the expectation that it will boost their economies, observes Mihir S Sharma.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday announced a Rs 11.11 lakh crore spending on infrastructure and vowed to continue reforms as she resisted resorting to populist measures in Modi government's last Budget before general elections, instead choosing to stay on the path of cutting deficit while bolstering measures for focus groups.
Indeed has seen an increase in listings for drivers, food delivery runners, and other service providers.
In a submission to the federal government on the size of the immigration programme to be set in the May budget, Australian Industry Group has asked the government to increase intake of immigrants from 190,000 to 220,000 in 2014-15.
Measures that quickly boost demand and increase employment are needed to push up growth. Moreover, without announcing new planss, the government should strengthen schemes such as PM KISAN, MNREGA and programmes to build rural roads.
Trade tensions between India and the US have been rising with President Donald Trump complaining that tariffs imposed by New Delhi on American products were "no longer acceptable".
The Indian economy's election-year syndrome cannot be ignored, says A K Bhattacharya.
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is critically important for India to become a $5 trillion economy, Deloitte CEO Punit Renjen said while noting that over two-fifths of the 1,200 business leaders surveyed in the US, UK, Japan and Singapore are planning additional or first-time investments in India. Referring to the survey, he said India continues to be "one of the most attractive" FDI destinations. "Despite the COVID-19 destruction, inflows hit a record high last year. "Business leaders, whom Deloitte surveyed, are preparing to make additional and first-time investments in India," Renjen said.
Germany is now sitting on a mountain of savings.
Economist Dale W Jorgenson declares that India is doing "very, very well" and forecasts that India might continue to outrun world economies, including China over the next many years.
With the reality of coalition politics staring the BJP in its face, this was inevitable, points out Ramesh Menon.
'I would recommend two parts to fiscal support. One, support the lower end of the society by direct intervention through ways such as direct benefit cash transfer. Second, give fiscal support to the stressed sectors in line with the Rs 3-lakh crore (Rs 3 trillion) emergency credit line guarantee norms'
'When you forgive a farmer's loans there is this ideological economists lobby which says: 'That's socialism. And that's bad'.' 'But to forgive the loans of big people, so that they will be interested to invest further is capitalism and is good.'
'In terms of semiconductors, challenges do remain in the pan industry, but I think we are much better than where we were a year or so back.'
Nitin Desai suggests some concrete measures to revive investment and boost growth.
The panel noted that the macro-economic fundamentals of the economy are sound but challenges remain, several of which are structural in nature.
The World Bank on Sunday said the coronavirus outbreak has severely disrupted the Indian economy, magnifying the pre-existing risks to its outlook. In its 'South Asia Economic Update: Impact of Covid-19', the World Bank estimated the Indian economy to decelerate to 5 per cent in 2020 and projected a sharp growth deceleration in fiscal 2021 to 2.8 per cent in a baseline scenario.
'While the country has been hit hard from a strong second wave of Covid, we believe the markets are willing to look through that.'
'The answer for a quicker boost to growth is simple -- run a much larger deficit, use the resulting public resources to ensure adequate price support for agriculture, subsidise wage costs of MSMEs and accelerate public sector construction-intensive activities,' advises Nitin Desai.
The share of women employed in regular salaried jobs in urban India hit a fresh low in the January-March quarter (Q4) of 2023-24 (FY24). In the same period, the share of women engaged in self-employment went up. An analysis of the latest quarterly Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) data showed the share of women in regular wage work among all employed women stood at 52.3 per cent in Q4FY24, down from 53 per cent in the previous quarter.
'If we want real democracy, the economy itself will need to be democratised.'
Moody's on Thursday raised India's GDP forecast for the calendar year 2020 upwards to -8.9 per cent contraction from -9.6 per cent contraction forecast earlier. Similarly, India's GDP forecast for the calendar year 2021 has been revised upwards to 8.6 per cent from 8.1 per cent projected earlier. The report released by Moody's Investors Service attributed the reason behind better growth to the falling of coronavirus cases in the country.
The Reserve Bank's growth projection for next financial year is lower than 8-8.5 per cent projected by the finance ministry in the recent Economic Survey which was tabled in Parliament on January 31. Unveiling the bi-monthly policy, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said, "Recovery in domestic economic activity is yet to be broad-based, as private consumption and contact-intensive services remain below pre-pandemic levels."
The interim Budget proposals that will be presented on February 1 in the backdrop of the general elections scheduled in April/May 2024 are likely to have a hint of populism, believe analysts, but are unlikely to derail the government from its path of fiscal prudence.
The coveted QS rankings indicate that India is slowly but steadily overtaking other nations in the field of education.
At a time of massive job losses that is what the much-vaunted Indian IT sector needs. Ritwik Sharma reports.
South and South-West Asia could witness an economic growth of 5.3 per cent in 2015, which will be a four-year high.
